Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 2.574887 2.993692 3.457241 4.008136 4.644823 5.357409 6.215399
2026-01-25 1.879703 2.429626 3.103062 3.987454 5.117603 6.512927 8.366480
2026-02-01 1.373148 1.936978 2.687347 3.756955 5.240778 7.225161 10.080244
2026-02-08 1.070241 1.625523 2.418265 3.629025 5.428503 8.001361 11.958131
2026-02-15 0.881967 1.428555 2.257934 3.602742 5.724105 8.937010 14.169530
2026-02-22 0.776634 1.331808 2.220941 3.740942 6.267969 10.294189 17.189777
2026-03-01 0.662234 1.196762 2.096290 3.710402 6.525854 11.223748 19.647118
2026-03-08 0.565615 1.073135 1.967325 3.645447 6.705257 12.033049 21.997607
2026-03-15 0.496755 0.986197 1.886146 3.646917 6.992160 13.051131 24.834009
2026-03-22 0.475228 0.983601 1.955714 3.931714 7.829797 15.148966 29.898412
2026-03-29 0.432087 0.931046 1.921918 4.011571 8.285827 16.593817 33.917839
2026-04-05 0.393400 0.880919 1.884634 4.076957 8.718397 18.041583 38.123403
2026-04-12 0.352224 0.820879 1.822567 4.091522 9.069616 19.414642 42.456458
2026-04-19 0.312676 0.758134 1.746164 4.066092 9.338294 20.667415 46.746707
2026-04-26 0.263190 0.663844 1.585892 3.829727 9.110389 20.840741 48.740226
2026-05-03 0.228261 0.597955 1.479346 3.698897 9.099747 21.483055 51.866633
2026-05-10 0.204480 0.555390 1.420683 3.671956 9.326920 22.689145 56.458362
2026-05-17 0.192728 0.541649 1.429818 3.812700 9.979872 24.970297 63.920054
2026-05-24 0.173578 0.504728 1.374782 3.781566 10.198504 26.240142 69.084537
2026-05-31 0.155169 0.466519 1.310317 3.715383 10.316703 27.277706 73.810026
2026-06-07 0.141743 0.440086 1.273131 3.716879 10.614084 28.807256 80.020872
2026-06-14 0.140556 0.449516 1.336210 4.007026 11.740515 32.636962 92.862834
2026-06-21 0.131711 0.434138 1.326674 4.088381 12.295751 35.021617 102.104518